we are in the “mobile internet interaction cycle is coming to an end, yet the rise of new interactive cycle stage, users grow more slowly, the flow of more and more expensive, so we will be new people as the main investment direction is to find new traffic from nature.
1, from history, we can see the rise and fall of
Venture capital circle
in 2016, slightly deserted and very lively: one side is broadcast, AR/VR, artificial intelligence, bicycle, etc. the concept of sharing the sea dazzling; the other side emerge in an endless stream, confusion, anxiety continues to spread. Entrepreneurs and investors like standing at the crossroads of the lost, at a loss.
as you say, history is always surprisingly similar, China Internet development has been more than 20 years, many of which are exactly the same commercial success.
I think, when we see the future trend and development direction in the future, might as well from the perspective of historical development of the China Internet evolution, and summarizes some rules of nature, constantly approaching things.
so far, China soon after two complete cycles of Internet interaction, basically every interaction for a period of 10 years: 1999 -2009 PC Internet development cycle; 2008 -2018 for the mobile Internet development cycle.
the following figure for the development of PC and mobile Internet history cycle roadmap, I will from three dimensions (hardware, connectivity, software) to share their understanding of this picture.
* PC and mobile Internet development cycle of China (photos provided by respondents)
the first dimension – hardware cycle
in fact, the emergence of a new interactive mode needs to go through four stages:
1) generation of epoch-making hardware products, led by the hardware vendors (hardware standards);
2) on the basis of the software on the basis of the unified software, such as Windows to become a unified software platform throughout the PC era, and Android and iOS become a unified mobile Internet era software platform;
3) software ecosystem slowly formed, hardware manufacturers gradually marginalized, the rise of software vendors;
4) hardware has become the Red Sea and gradually marginalized, software dominated the entire ecosystem.
second dimensions – connection cycle
each connection cycle will go through three stages: from the Internet to the payment of information interconnection, and then to the logistics interconnection.
third dimensions — software cycle
The software development of
PC and mobile Internet era general order “tool – social / game – electricity – O2O – Live / chess / Indiana yuan”. >